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Araioses vs Americano Bacabal — Maranhense - 2 2026

Araioses
Araioses
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Americano Bacabal
Americano Bacabal
6/10/2026Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Araioses87%
×Draw11%
Americano Bacabal2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Araioses
2.54
Americano Bacabal
0.25

Araioses creates 916% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Araioses
1.75
Americano Bacabal
0.50

allows per match

Araioses
0.00
Americano Bacabal
3.33

finishing

Araioses+0.00on par
Americano Bacabal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No: 80Yes: 2080%No
  • No80
  • Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araioses ↓

Americano Bacabal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–14%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–020%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–017%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (20%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Araioses or draw
98%
Araioses or Americano Bacabal
89%
Draw or Americano Bacabal
13%

Winning margin

Araioses wins by 2+
65%
Americano Bacabal wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Araioses 1+ goals
92%
Araioses 2+ goals
72%
Araioses 3+ goals
46%
Americano Bacabal 1+ goals
22%
Americano Bacabal 2+ goals
3%
Americano Bacabal 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Araioses (draw refunded)
97%
Americano Bacabal (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araioses at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Americano Bacabal away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araioses attack 1.75 + Americano Bacabal defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.54

Americano Bacabal attack 0.50 + Araioses defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Araioses scores more
87%
level
11%
Americano Bacabal scores more
2%

Araioses at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Araioses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Araioses vs Americano Bacabal

Araioses beat Americano Bacabal 3-0 in Maranhense - 2 on June 10, 2026.