Aragvi Dusheti 1–2 Spaeri: Result & Stats

Aragvi Dusheti

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Spaeri

5/15/2024

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 12Sartitchalis Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Aragvi Dusheti37%

×Draw25%

Spaeri38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aragvi DushetiExpected goals in this matchSpaeri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.46

Aragvi Dusheti

1.43

Spaeri

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 64 away

1.57

creates per match

1.53

1.40

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Aragvi Dusheti

1.57

Spaeri

1.53

allows per match

Aragvi Dusheti

1.40

Spaeri

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aragvi Dusheti+0.00on par

Spaeri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragvi Dusheti ↓

Spaeri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Aragvi Dusheti or draw

62%

Aragvi Dusheti or Spaeri

75%

Draw or Spaeri

63%

Winning margin

Aragvi Dusheti wins by 2+

17%

Spaeri wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Aragvi Dusheti 1+ goals

76%

Aragvi Dusheti 2+ goals

42%

Aragvi Dusheti 3+ goals

17%

Spaeri 1+ goals

77%

Spaeri 2+ goals

43%

Spaeri 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Aragvi Dusheti (draw refunded)

49%

Spaeri (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragvi Dusheti at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Spaeri away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragvi Dusheti attack 1.57 + Spaeri defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43

Spaeri attack 1.53 + Aragvi Dusheti defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aragvi Dusheti scores more

37%

level

25%

Spaeri scores more

38%

Spaeri at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spaeri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff