Aragvi Dusheti 0–2 Samtredia: Result & Stats

Aragvi Dusheti

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Samtredia

7/21/2024

David Kipiani Cup · Round of 32Sartitchalis Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Aragvi Dusheti26%

×Draw24%

Samtredia50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aragvi DushetiExpected goals in this matchSamtredia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.73

Aragvi Dusheti

1.18

Samtredia

1.73

Samtredia creates 47% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

0.50

creates per match

1.71

1.75

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Aragvi Dusheti

0.50

Samtredia

1.71

allows per match

Aragvi Dusheti

1.75

Samtredia

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aragvi Dusheti+0.00on par

Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragvi Dusheti ↓

Samtredia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Aragvi Dusheti or draw

50%

Aragvi Dusheti or Samtredia

76%

Draw or Samtredia

74%

Winning margin

Aragvi Dusheti wins by 2+

10%

Samtredia wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Aragvi Dusheti 1+ goals

69%

Aragvi Dusheti 2+ goals

33%

Aragvi Dusheti 3+ goals

12%

Samtredia 1+ goals

82%

Samtredia 2+ goals

52%

Samtredia 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Aragvi Dusheti (draw refunded)

34%

Samtredia (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragvi Dusheti at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragvi Dusheti attack 0.50 + Samtredia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Aragvi Dusheti defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aragvi Dusheti scores more

26%

level

24%

Samtredia scores more

50%

Samtredia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff