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Aragua FC vs Deportivo La Guaira — Copa Venezuela 2024

Aragua FC
Aragua FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
R. McIntosh 56'
E. Farias 32'
A. Custodio 14'
6/27/2024Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Group Stage - 4Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aragua FC32%
×Draw30%
Deportivo La Guaira38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragua FC
1.00
Deportivo La Guaira
1.11

Deportivo La Guaira creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Aragua FC
1.00
Deportivo La Guaira
0.83

allows per match

Aragua FC
1.40
Deportivo La Guaira
1.00

finishing

Aragua FC+0.00on par
Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragua FC ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aragua FC or draw
62%
Aragua FC or Deportivo La Guaira
70%
Draw or Deportivo La Guaira
68%

Winning margin

Aragua FC wins by 2+
12%
Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aragua FC 1+ goals
63%
Aragua FC 2+ goals
26%
Aragua FC 3+ goals
8%
Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aragua FC (draw refunded)
46%
Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragua FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragua FC attack 1.00 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Deportivo La Guaira attack 0.83 + Aragua FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aragua FC scores more
32%
level
30%
Deportivo La Guaira scores more
38%

Deportivo La Guaira at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Custodio
32'
E. Farias
56'
R. McIntosh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Venezuela: Aragua FC 1–2 Deportivo La Guaira

Deportivo La Guaira beat Aragua FC 2-1 in Copa Venezuela on June 27, 2024.

Goals: A. Custodio (14'), E. Farias (32'), R. McIntosh (56').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez in Maracay.