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Aragua FC vs Deportivo Anzoategui — Primera División 2018

Aragua FC
Aragua FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
9/1/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 8Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez (Maracay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Aragua FC48%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Anzoategui24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragua FC
1.39
Deportivo Anzoategui
0.90

Aragua FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 26 away

creates per match

Aragua FC
0.96
Deportivo Anzoategui
0.92

allows per match

Aragua FC
0.87
Deportivo Anzoategui
1.81

finishing

Aragua FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragua FC ↓

Deportivo Anzoategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aragua FC or draw
76%
Aragua FC or Deportivo Anzoategui
73%
Draw or Deportivo Anzoategui
52%

Winning margin

Aragua FC wins by 2+
23%
Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Aragua FC 1+ goals
75%
Aragua FC 2+ goals
40%
Aragua FC 3+ goals
16%
Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aragua FC (draw refunded)
66%
Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragua FC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Deportivo Anzoategui away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragua FC attack 0.96 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.39

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 0.92 + Aragua FC defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aragua FC scores more
48%
level
27%
Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
24%

Aragua FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aragua FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Aragua FC 0–0 Deportivo Anzoategui

Aragua FC and Deportivo Anzoategui drew 0-0 in Primera División on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez (Maracay).