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Aragua FC vs Bolívar — Segunda División 2018

Aragua FC
Aragua FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bolívar
Bolívar
3/7/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio Olimpico Hermanos Ghersi Paez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aragua FC51%
×Draw29%
Bolívar20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragua FC
1.27
Bolívar
0.68

Aragua FC creates 87% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 55 away

creates per match

Aragua FC
1.19
Bolívar
0.67

allows per match

Aragua FC
0.68
Bolívar
1.36

finishing

Aragua FC+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragua FC ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Aragua FC or draw
80%
Aragua FC or Bolívar
71%
Draw or Bolívar
49%

Winning margin

Aragua FC wins by 2+
24%
Bolívar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Aragua FC 1+ goals
72%
Aragua FC 2+ goals
36%
Aragua FC 3+ goals
14%
Bolívar 1+ goals
49%
Bolívar 2+ goals
15%
Bolívar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Aragua FC (draw refunded)
72%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragua FC at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.68 · 37 matches

Bolívar away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragua FC attack 1.19 + Bolívar defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bolívar attack 0.67 + Aragua FC defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aragua FC scores more
51%
level
29%
Bolívar scores more
20%

Aragua FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aragua FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aragua FC vs Bolívar

Aragua FC beat Bolívar 2-1 in Segunda División on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Hermanos Ghersi Paez in Maracay.