Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aragats vs Torpedo Yerevan — First League 2019

Aragats
Aragats
FT
3 – 4
Torpedo Yerevan
Torpedo Yerevan
8/27/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Banants-3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Aragats57%
×Draw18%
Torpedo Yerevan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragats
2.71
Torpedo Yerevan
1.75

Aragats creates 55% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Aragats
1.93
Torpedo Yerevan
1.29

allows per match

Aragats
2.21
Torpedo Yerevan
3.50

finishing

Aragats+0.00on par
Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragats ↓

Torpedo Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Aragats or draw
76%
Aragats or Torpedo Yerevan
82%
Draw or Torpedo Yerevan
43%

Winning margin

Aragats wins by 2+
38%
Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aragats 1+ goals
93%
Aragats 2+ goals
75%
Aragats 3+ goals
50%
Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals
83%
Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals
52%
Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Aragats (draw refunded)
70%
Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragats at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Torpedo Yerevan away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragats attack 1.93 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.71

Torpedo Yerevan attack 1.29 + Aragats defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Aragats scores more
57%
level
18%
Torpedo Yerevan scores more
24%

Aragats at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Aragats will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Aragats 3–4 Torpedo Yerevan

Torpedo Yerevan beat Aragats 4-3 in First League on August 27, 2019.

The match was played at Banants-3 in Yerevan.