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Aragats vs Lokomotiv — First League 2019

Aragats
Aragats
FT
2 – 2
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
12/3/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Kasakhi Marzik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aragats22%
×Draw18%
Lokomotiv60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragats
1.54
Lokomotiv
2.60

Lokomotiv creates 69% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Aragats
1.93
Lokomotiv
3.00

allows per match

Aragats
2.21
Lokomotiv
1.15

finishing

Aragats+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragats ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Aragats or draw
40%
Aragats or Lokomotiv
82%
Draw or Lokomotiv
78%

Winning margin

Aragats wins by 2+
10%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Aragats 1+ goals
79%
Aragats 2+ goals
45%
Aragats 3+ goals
20%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
92%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
73%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Aragats (draw refunded)
27%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragats at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragats attack 1.93 + Lokomotiv defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lokomotiv attack 3.00 + Aragats defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Aragats scores more
22%
level
18%
Lokomotiv scores more
60%

Lokomotiv at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Aragats 2–2 Lokomotiv

Aragats and Lokomotiv drew 2-2 in First League on December 3, 2019.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik in Ashtarak.