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Aragats vs BKMA — First League 2019

Aragats
Aragats
FT
1 – 3
BKMA
BKMA
8/16/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Banants-3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Aragats22%
×Draw19%
BKMA59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragats
1.50
BKMA
2.51

BKMA creates 67% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Aragats
1.93
BKMA
2.81

allows per match

Aragats
2.21
BKMA
1.07

finishing

Aragats+0.00on par
BKMA+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragats ↓

BKMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Aragats or draw
41%
Aragats or BKMA
81%
Draw or BKMA
78%

Winning margin

Aragats wins by 2+
10%
BKMA wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Aragats 1+ goals
78%
Aragats 2+ goals
44%
Aragats 3+ goals
19%
BKMA 1+ goals
92%
BKMA 2+ goals
71%
BKMA 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Aragats (draw refunded)
27%
BKMA (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragats at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

BKMA away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragats attack 1.93 + BKMA defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.50

BKMA attack 2.81 + Aragats defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Aragats scores more
22%
level
19%
BKMA scores more
59%

BKMA at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "BKMA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aragats vs BKMA

BKMA beat Aragats 3-1 in First League on August 16, 2019.

The match was played at Banants-3 in Yerevan.