Aragats vs Ararat-Armenia II — First League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 14+ matches
Aragats40%
Ararat-Armenia II38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 14 home / 99 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over72
- Under28
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes71
- No29
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Aragats ↓
Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Aragats at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches
Ararat-Armenia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.86 · 99 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Aragats attack 1.93 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.90
Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.48 + Aragats defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.84
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Aragats at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Aragats will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Van
Lokomotiv
West Armenia
BKMAArarat-Armenia II
Alashkert II
Sevan
Banants II
Ararat IIAragats
Torpedo Yerevan
Lernayin Artsakh
Shirak II
Ani Yerevan
Masis
Dilijan
Pyunik II
MakaravankIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Aragats host Ararat-Armenia II on Monday, 13 July 2020 at 06:00. The match is part of the First League 2019/2020 season.
Preview: Aragats host Ararat-Armenia II
July 13, 2020: Aragats take on Ararat-Armenia II in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Aragats host Ararat-Armenia II at Kasakhi Marzik.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.