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Aragats vs Alashkert II — First League 2019

Aragats
Aragats
FT
3 – 3
Alashkert II
Alashkert II
9/16/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Kasakhi Marzik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Aragats48%
×Draw20%
Alashkert II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aragats
2.25
Alashkert II
1.80

Aragats creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 64 away

creates per match

Aragats
1.93
Alashkert II
1.39

allows per match

Aragats
2.21
Alashkert II
2.58

finishing

Aragats+0.00on par
Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragats ↓

Alashkert II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Aragats or draw
69%
Aragats or Alashkert II
80%
Draw or Alashkert II
52%

Winning margin

Aragats wins by 2+
29%
Alashkert II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Aragats 1+ goals
89%
Aragats 2+ goals
65%
Aragats 3+ goals
39%
Alashkert II 1+ goals
83%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
54%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Aragats (draw refunded)
61%
Alashkert II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragats at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragats attack 1.93 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.25

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + Aragats defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aragats scores more
48%
level
20%
Alashkert II scores more
31%

Aragats at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aragats will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Aragats 3–3 Alashkert II

Aragats and Alashkert II drew 3-3 in First League on September 16, 2019.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik in Ashtarak.