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Arad W vs Ladies Târgu Mureş W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Arad W
Arad W
FT
0 – 4
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
4/23/2023Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 5Stadionul Sânicolau Mic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Arad W72%
×Draw14%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arad W
3.60
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.62

Arad W creates 122% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 35 away

creates per match

Arad W
2.74
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.34

allows per match

Arad W
1.90
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
4.46

finishing

Arad W+0.00on par
Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arad W ↓

Ladies Târgu Mureş W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Arad W or draw
86%
Arad W or Ladies Târgu Mureş W
86%
Draw or Ladies Târgu Mureş W
28%

Winning margin

Arad W wins by 2+
54%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arad W 1+ goals
97%
Arad W 2+ goals
86%
Arad W 3+ goals
67%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals
80%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals
48%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Arad W (draw refunded)
84%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arad W at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W away — creates 1.34, concedes 4.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arad W attack 2.74 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 4.46 → ÷2 → 3.60

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.34 + Arad W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Arad W scores more
72%
level
14%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more
14%

Arad W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Arad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Arad W 0–4 Ladies Târgu Mureş W

Ladies Târgu Mureş W beat Arad W 4-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Sânicolau Mic in Arad.