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Arad W vs CSS Târgovişte W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Arad W
Arad W
FT
10 – 0
CSS Târgovişte W
CSS Târgovişte W
3/20/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 3Stadionul Sânicolau Mic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Arad W85%
×Draw9%
CSS Târgovişte W6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arad W
4.22
CSS Târgovişte W
1.20

Arad W creates 252% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 10 away

creates per match

Arad W
2.74
CSS Târgovişte W
0.50

allows per match

Arad W
1.90
CSS Târgovişte W
5.70

finishing

Arad W+0.00on par
CSS Târgovişte W+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arad W ↓

CSS Târgovişte W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Arad W or draw
94%
Arad W or CSS Târgovişte W
91%
Draw or CSS Târgovişte W
15%

Winning margin

Arad W wins by 2+
70%
CSS Târgovişte W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Arad W 1+ goals
98%
Arad W 2+ goals
91%
Arad W 3+ goals
76%
CSS Târgovişte W 1+ goals
70%
CSS Târgovişte W 2+ goals
34%
CSS Târgovişte W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Arad W (draw refunded)
93%
CSS Târgovişte W (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arad W at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

CSS Târgovişte W away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arad W attack 2.74 + CSS Târgovişte W defence 5.70 → ÷2 → 4.22

CSS Târgovişte W attack 0.50 + Arad W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Arad W scores more
85%
level
9%
CSS Târgovişte W scores more
6%

Arad W at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Arad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arad W vs CSS Târgovişte W

Arad W beat CSS Târgovişte W 10-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Sânicolau Mic in Arad.