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Arad W vs Carmen București W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Arad W
Arad W
FT
0 – 8
Carmen București W
Carmen București W
11/20/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 9Stadionul Sânicolau Mic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arad W48%
×Draw19%
Carmen București W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arad W
2.56
Carmen București W
2.11

Arad W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

creates per match

Arad W
2.74
Carmen București W
2.32

allows per match

Arad W
1.90
Carmen București W
2.37

finishing

Arad W+0.00on par
Carmen București W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arad W ↓

Carmen București W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Arad W or draw
67%
Arad W or Carmen București W
81%
Draw or Carmen București W
52%

Winning margin

Arad W wins by 2+
30%
Carmen București W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Arad W 1+ goals
92%
Arad W 2+ goals
72%
Arad W 3+ goals
46%
Carmen București W 1+ goals
88%
Carmen București W 2+ goals
62%
Carmen București W 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Arad W (draw refunded)
60%
Carmen București W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arad W at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

Carmen București W away — creates 2.32, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arad W attack 2.74 + Carmen București W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.56

Carmen București W attack 2.32 + Arad W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arad W scores more
48%
level
19%
Carmen București W scores more
33%

Arad W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Arad W 0–8 Carmen București W

Carmen București W beat Arad W 8-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Sânicolau Mic in Arad.