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Araçatuba U20 vs Sertãozinho U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Araçatuba U20
Araçatuba U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sertãozinho U20
Sertãozinho U20
Unknown 51'
5/17/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Araçatuba U2031%
×Draw23%
Sertãozinho U2046%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Araçatuba U20
1.41
Sertãozinho U20
1.78

Sertãozinho U20 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

Araçatuba U20
0.86
Sertãozinho U20
1.13

allows per match

Araçatuba U20
2.43
Sertãozinho U20
1.96

finishing

Araçatuba U20+0.00on par
Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araçatuba U20 ↓

Sertãozinho U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Araçatuba U20 or draw
54%
Araçatuba U20 or Sertãozinho U20
77%
Draw or Sertãozinho U20
69%

Winning margin

Araçatuba U20 wins by 2+
14%
Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Araçatuba U20 1+ goals
76%
Araçatuba U20 2+ goals
41%
Araçatuba U20 3+ goals
17%
Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals
83%
Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals
53%
Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Araçatuba U20 (draw refunded)
40%
Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araçatuba U20 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Sertãozinho U20 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araçatuba U20 attack 0.86 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sertãozinho U20 attack 1.13 + Araçatuba U20 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Araçatuba U20 scores more
31%
level
23%
Sertãozinho U20 scores more
46%

Sertãozinho U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sertãozinho U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
90+7'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Araçatuba U20 1–0 Sertãozinho U20

Araçatuba U20 beat Sertãozinho U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 17, 2025.

Goals: ? (51').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros in Araçatuba, São Paulo.