Araçatuba U20 1–2 Botafogo SP U20: Result & Stats

Araçatuba U20

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Botafogo SP U20

Unknown 36'

Unknown 84', 76'

7/11/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Municipal Pedro Marin Berbel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Araçatuba U2024%

×Draw21%

Botafogo SP U2055%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Araçatuba U20Expected goals in this matchBotafogo SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

2.05

Araçatuba U20

1.28

Botafogo SP U20

2.05

Botafogo SP U20 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 24 away

0.86

creates per match

1.67

2.43

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Araçatuba U20

0.86

Botafogo SP U20

1.67

allows per match

Araçatuba U20

2.43

Botafogo SP U20

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Araçatuba U20+0.00on par

Botafogo SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araçatuba U20 ↓

Botafogo SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Araçatuba U20 or draw

45%

Araçatuba U20 or Botafogo SP U20

79%

Draw or Botafogo SP U20

76%

Winning margin

Araçatuba U20 wins by 2+

10%

Botafogo SP U20 wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Araçatuba U20 1+ goals

72%

Araçatuba U20 2+ goals

37%

Araçatuba U20 3+ goals

14%

Botafogo SP U20 1+ goals

87%

Botafogo SP U20 2+ goals

61%

Botafogo SP U20 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Araçatuba U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Botafogo SP U20 (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araçatuba U20 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Botafogo SP U20 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araçatuba U20 attack 0.86 + Botafogo SP U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Botafogo SP U20 attack 1.67 + Araçatuba U20 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Araçatuba U20 scores more

24%

level

21%

Botafogo SP U20 scores more

55%

Botafogo SP U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Botafogo SP U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

76'

84'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff