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AR São Martinho vs Pevidem — Taça de Portugal 2018

AR São Martinho
AR São Martinho
AET
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pevidem
Pevidem
9/27/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Comendador Abílio Ferreira de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AR São Martinho29%
×Draw27%
Pevidem44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AR São Martinho
1.07
Pevidem
1.40

Pevidem creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

AR São Martinho
1.14
Pevidem
1.50

allows per match

AR São Martinho
1.29
Pevidem
1.00

finishing

AR São Martinho+0.00on par
Pevidem+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AR São Martinho ↓

Pevidem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AR São Martinho or draw
56%
AR São Martinho or Pevidem
73%
Draw or Pevidem
71%

Winning margin

AR São Martinho wins by 2+
11%
Pevidem wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

AR São Martinho 1+ goals
66%
AR São Martinho 2+ goals
29%
AR São Martinho 3+ goals
9%
Pevidem 1+ goals
75%
Pevidem 2+ goals
41%
Pevidem 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

AR São Martinho (draw refunded)
39%
Pevidem (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AR São Martinho at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Pevidem away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AR São Martinho attack 1.14 + Pevidem defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Pevidem attack 1.50 + AR São Martinho defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AR São Martinho scores more
29%
level
27%
Pevidem scores more
44%

Pevidem at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pevidem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: AR São Martinho 2–0 Pevidem

AR São Martinho beat Pevidem 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Comendador Abílio Ferreira de Oliveira in São Martinho do Campo - Santo Tirso.