AR São Martinho 1–2 Paredes: Result & Stats

AR São Martinho

FT

1 – 2

Paredes

E. Dass 57'

I. Goncalves 62'

C. Gomina 30'

10/11/2020

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Comendador Abílio Ferreira de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AR São Martinho34%

×Draw25%

Paredes41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AR São MartinhoExpected goals in this matchParedes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.55

AR São Martinho

1.39

Paredes

1.55

Paredes creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.60

creates per match

1.50

1.60

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

AR São Martinho

1.60

Paredes

1.50

allows per match

AR São Martinho

1.60

Paredes

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AR São Martinho+0.00on par

Paredes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AR São Martinho ↓

Paredes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AR São Martinho or draw

59%

AR São Martinho or Paredes

75%

Draw or Paredes

66%

Winning margin

AR São Martinho wins by 2+

15%

Paredes wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

AR São Martinho 1+ goals

75%

AR São Martinho 2+ goals

40%

AR São Martinho 3+ goals

16%

Paredes 1+ goals

79%

Paredes 2+ goals

46%

Paredes 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

AR São Martinho (draw refunded)

45%

Paredes (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AR São Martinho at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Paredes away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AR São Martinho attack 1.60 + Paredes defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Paredes attack 1.50 + AR São Martinho defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AR São Martinho scores more

34%

level

25%

Paredes scores more

41%

Paredes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paredes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

C. Gomina

57'

E. Dass

62'

I. Goncalves

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff