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AR São Martinho vs Merelinense — Taça de Portugal 2018

AR São Martinho
AR São Martinho
FT
0 – 0
Merelinense
Merelinense
9/29/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Comendador Abílio Ferreira de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AR São Martinho25%
×Draw27%
Merelinense48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AR São Martinho
0.97
Merelinense
1.45

Merelinense creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

AR São Martinho
1.14
Merelinense
1.60

allows per match

AR São Martinho
1.29
Merelinense
0.80

finishing

AR São Martinho+0.00on par
Merelinense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AR São Martinho ↓

Merelinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AR São Martinho or draw
52%
AR São Martinho or Merelinense
73%
Draw or Merelinense
75%

Winning margin

AR São Martinho wins by 2+
9%
Merelinense wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

AR São Martinho 1+ goals
62%
AR São Martinho 2+ goals
25%
AR São Martinho 3+ goals
7%
Merelinense 1+ goals
77%
Merelinense 2+ goals
42%
Merelinense 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

AR São Martinho (draw refunded)
34%
Merelinense (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AR São Martinho at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Merelinense away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AR São Martinho attack 1.14 + Merelinense defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.97

Merelinense attack 1.60 + AR São Martinho defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AR São Martinho scores more
25%
level
27%
Merelinense scores more
48%

Merelinense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Merelinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AR São Martinho vs Merelinense

AR São Martinho and Merelinense drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Comendador Abílio Ferreira de Oliveira in São Martinho do Campo - Santo Tirso.