AR São Martinho 0–2 Casa Pia: Result & Stats

AR São Martinho

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Casa Pia

10/16/2022

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Comendador Abílio Ferreira de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AR São Martinho17%

×Draw21%

Casa Pia61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AR São MartinhoExpected goals in this matchCasa Pia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.97

AR São Martinho

0.93

Casa Pia

1.97

Casa Pia creates 112% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.14

creates per match

2.64

1.29

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

AR São Martinho

1.14

Casa Pia

2.64

allows per match

AR São Martinho

1.29

Casa Pia

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AR São Martinho+0.00on par

Casa Pia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AR São Martinho ↓

Casa Pia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

AR São Martinho or draw

39%

AR São Martinho or Casa Pia

79%

Draw or Casa Pia

83%

Winning margin

AR São Martinho wins by 2+

6%

Casa Pia wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

AR São Martinho 1+ goals

61%

AR São Martinho 2+ goals

24%

AR São Martinho 3+ goals

7%

Casa Pia 1+ goals

86%

Casa Pia 2+ goals

58%

Casa Pia 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

AR São Martinho (draw refunded)

22%

Casa Pia (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AR São Martinho at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 2.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AR São Martinho attack 1.14 + Casa Pia defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Casa Pia attack 2.64 + AR São Martinho defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

AR São Martinho scores more

17%

level

21%

Casa Pia scores more

61%

Casa Pia at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Casa Pia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff