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AR São Martinho vs Benfica Castelo Branco — Taça de Portugal 2018

AR São Martinho
AR São Martinho
FT
0 – 1
Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
9/25/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Comendador Abílio Ferreira de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AR São Martinho14%
×Draw19%
Benfica Castelo Branco66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AR São Martinho
0.87
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.15

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 147% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

AR São Martinho
1.14
Benfica Castelo Branco
3.00

allows per match

AR São Martinho
1.29
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.60

finishing

AR São Martinho+0.00on par
Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AR São Martinho ↓

Benfica Castelo Branco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

AR São Martinho or draw
34%
AR São Martinho or Benfica Castelo Branco
81%
Draw or Benfica Castelo Branco
86%

Winning margin

AR São Martinho wins by 2+
4%
Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

AR São Martinho 1+ goals
58%
AR São Martinho 2+ goals
22%
AR São Martinho 3+ goals
6%
Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
88%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
63%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

AR São Martinho (draw refunded)
17%
Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AR São Martinho at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Benfica Castelo Branco away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AR São Martinho attack 1.14 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.87

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 3.00 + AR São Martinho defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

AR São Martinho scores more
14%
level
19%
Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
66%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AR São Martinho 0 – 1 Benfica Castelo Branco

Benfica Castelo Branco beat AR São Martinho 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Comendador Abílio Ferreira de Oliveira in São Martinho do Campo - Santo Tirso.