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APV vs Sporting Kristina — Suomen Cup 2018

APV
APV
FT
1 – 2
Sporting Kristina
Sporting Kristina
3/31/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundIlkka-Areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

APV4%
×Draw9%
Sporting Kristina87%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APV
0.78
Sporting Kristina
3.65

Sporting Kristina creates 368% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

APV
0.75
Sporting Kristina
3.80

allows per match

APV
3.50
Sporting Kristina
0.80

finishing

APV+0.00on par
Sporting Kristina+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APV ↓

Sporting Kristina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–29%
0–310%
0–410%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

APV or draw
13%
APV or Sporting Kristina
91%
Draw or Sporting Kristina
96%

Winning margin

APV wins by 2+
1%
Sporting Kristina wins by 2+
71%

Team goals

APV 1+ goals
54%
APV 2+ goals
18%
APV 3+ goals
4%
Sporting Kristina 1+ goals
97%
Sporting Kristina 2+ goals
87%
Sporting Kristina 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

APV (draw refunded)
5%
Sporting Kristina (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APV at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Sporting Kristina away — creates 3.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APV attack 0.75 + Sporting Kristina defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Sporting Kristina attack 3.80 + APV defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

APV scores more
4%
level
9%
Sporting Kristina scores more
87%

Sporting Kristina at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Sporting Kristina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: APV 1–2 Sporting Kristina

Sporting Kristina beat APV 2-1 in Suomen Cup on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Ilkka-Areena TN in Kuortane.