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APV vs KPS — Suomen Cup 2018

APV
APV
FT
2 – 3
KPS
KPS
2/28/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Preliminary RoundIlkka-Areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

APV2%
×Draw4%
KPS95%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APV
0.88
KPS
5.75

KPS creates 553% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

APV
0.75
KPS
8.00

allows per match

APV
3.50
KPS
1.00

finishing

APV+0.00on par
KPS+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APV ↓

KPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–36%
0–49%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–36%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–33%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (9%) · grid covers 49% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

APV or draw
5%
APV or KPS
96%
Draw or KPS
98%

Winning margin

APV wins by 2+
0%
KPS wins by 2+
87%

Team goals

APV 1+ goals
59%
APV 2+ goals
22%
APV 3+ goals
6%
KPS 1+ goals
100%
KPS 2+ goals
97%
KPS 3+ goals
89%

Draw no bet

APV (draw refunded)
2%
KPS (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APV at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

KPS away — creates 8.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APV attack 0.75 + KPS defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

KPS attack 8.00 + APV defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 5.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

APV scores more
2%
level
4%
KPS scores more
95%

KPS at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "KPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

APV 2 – 3 KPS

KPS beat APV 3-2 in Suomen Cup on February 28, 2025.

The match was played at Ilkka-Areena TN in Kuortane.