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Apucarana vs Patriotas — Paranaense - 2 2020

Apucarana
Apucarana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Patriotas
Patriotas
Unknown 73'
5/20/2023Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Apucarana44%
×Draw29%
Patriotas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apucarana
1.25
Patriotas
0.91

Apucarana creates 37% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 19 away

creates per match

Apucarana
1.50
Patriotas
1.11

allows per match

Apucarana
0.71
Patriotas
1.00

finishing

Apucarana+0.00on par
Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apucarana ↓

Patriotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Apucarana or draw
73%
Apucarana or Patriotas
71%
Draw or Patriotas
56%

Winning margin

Apucarana wins by 2+
20%
Patriotas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Apucarana 1+ goals
71%
Apucarana 2+ goals
36%
Apucarana 3+ goals
13%
Patriotas 1+ goals
60%
Patriotas 2+ goals
23%
Patriotas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Apucarana (draw refunded)
62%
Patriotas (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apucarana at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 24 matches

Patriotas away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apucarana attack 1.50 + Patriotas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Patriotas attack 1.11 + Apucarana defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Apucarana scores more
44%
level
29%
Patriotas scores more
27%

Apucarana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Apucarana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Apucarana vs Patriotas

Patriotas beat Apucarana 1-0 in Paranaense - 2 on May 20, 2023.

Goals: ? (73').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto in Apucarana, Paraná.