Apucarana 1–1 Maringá: Result & Stats

Apucarana

FT

1 – 1

Maringá

10/14/2020

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Apucarana29%

×Draw32%

Maringá39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ApucaranaExpected goals in this matchMaringá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.02

Apucarana

0.83

Maringá

1.02

Maringá creates 23% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.33

0.71

allows per match

0.17

creates per match

Apucarana

1.50

Maringá

1.33

allows per match

Apucarana

0.71

Maringá

0.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apucarana+0.00on par

Maringá+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apucarana ↓

Maringá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Apucarana or draw

61%

Apucarana or Maringá

68%

Draw or Maringá

71%

Winning margin

Apucarana wins by 2+

9%

Maringá wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Apucarana 1+ goals

56%

Apucarana 2+ goals

20%

Apucarana 3+ goals

5%

Maringá 1+ goals

64%

Maringá 2+ goals

27%

Maringá 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Apucarana (draw refunded)

42%

Maringá (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apucarana at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 24 matches

Maringá away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apucarana attack 1.50 + Maringá defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.83

Maringá attack 1.33 + Apucarana defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Apucarana scores more

29%

level

32%

Maringá scores more

39%

Maringá at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Maringá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff