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Apucarana vs Grêmio Maringá — Paranaense - 2 2020

Apucarana
Apucarana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Grêmio Maringá
Grêmio Maringá
Unknown 85', 53'
5/13/2023Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Apucarana69%
×Draw20%
Grêmio Maringá12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apucarana
2.05
Grêmio Maringá
0.70

Apucarana creates 193% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 10 away

creates per match

Apucarana
1.50
Grêmio Maringá
0.70

allows per match

Apucarana
0.71
Grêmio Maringá
2.60

finishing

Apucarana+0.00on par
Grêmio Maringá+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apucarana ↓

Grêmio Maringá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Apucarana or draw
88%
Apucarana or Grêmio Maringá
80%
Draw or Grêmio Maringá
31%

Winning margin

Apucarana wins by 2+
44%
Grêmio Maringá wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Apucarana 1+ goals
87%
Apucarana 2+ goals
61%
Apucarana 3+ goals
33%
Grêmio Maringá 1+ goals
50%
Grêmio Maringá 2+ goals
16%
Grêmio Maringá 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Apucarana (draw refunded)
85%
Grêmio Maringá (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apucarana at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 24 matches

Grêmio Maringá away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apucarana attack 1.50 + Grêmio Maringá defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.05

Grêmio Maringá attack 0.70 + Apucarana defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Apucarana scores more
69%
level
20%
Grêmio Maringá scores more
12%

Apucarana at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Apucarana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Apucarana vs Grêmio Maringá

Apucarana beat Grêmio Maringá 2-0 in Paranaense - 2 on May 13, 2023.

Goals: ? (53', 85').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto in Apucarana, Paraná.