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Apucarana vs Araucária — Paranaense - 2 2020

Apucarana
Apucarana
FT
5 – 0
Araucária
Araucária
10/18/2020Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Apucarana63%
×Draw22%
Araucária15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apucarana
1.89
Araucária
0.81

Apucarana creates 133% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

creates per match

Apucarana
1.50
Araucária
0.91

allows per match

Apucarana
0.71
Araucária
2.27

finishing

Apucarana+0.00on par
Araucária+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apucarana ↓

Araucária →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Apucarana or draw
85%
Apucarana or Araucária
78%
Draw or Araucária
37%

Winning margin

Apucarana wins by 2+
37%
Araucária wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Apucarana 1+ goals
85%
Apucarana 2+ goals
56%
Apucarana 3+ goals
29%
Araucária 1+ goals
56%
Araucária 2+ goals
19%
Araucária 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Apucarana (draw refunded)
80%
Araucária (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apucarana at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 24 matches

Araucária away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apucarana attack 1.50 + Araucária defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.89

Araucária attack 0.91 + Apucarana defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Apucarana scores more
63%
level
22%
Araucária scores more
15%

Apucarana at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Apucarana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Apucarana vs Araucária

Apucarana beat Araucária 5-0 in Paranaense - 2 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto in Apucarana, Paraná.