Apucarana Sports U20 1–1 Rolândia U20

Apucarana Sports U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rolândia U20

3/30/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 3Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Apucarana Sports U2051%

×Draw25%

Rolândia U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apucarana Sports U20Expected goals in this matchRolândia U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.98

Apucarana Sports U20

1.56

Rolândia U20

0.98

Apucarana Sports U20 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

1.29

creates per match

1.17

0.79

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Apucarana Sports U20

1.29

Rolândia U20

1.17

allows per match

Apucarana Sports U20

0.79

Rolândia U20

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apucarana Sports U20+0.00on par

Rolândia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apucarana Sports U20 ↓

Rolândia U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Apucarana Sports U20 or draw

76%

Apucarana Sports U20 or Rolândia U20

75%

Draw or Rolândia U20

49%

Winning margin

Apucarana Sports U20 wins by 2+

26%

Rolândia U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Apucarana Sports U20 1+ goals

79%

Apucarana Sports U20 2+ goals

46%

Apucarana Sports U20 3+ goals

21%

Rolândia U20 1+ goals

62%

Rolândia U20 2+ goals

26%

Rolândia U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Apucarana Sports U20 (draw refunded)

68%

Rolândia U20 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apucarana Sports U20 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Rolândia U20 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apucarana Sports U20 attack 1.29 + Rolândia U20 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rolândia U20 attack 1.17 + Apucarana Sports U20 defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Apucarana Sports U20 scores more

51%

level

25%

Rolândia U20 scores more

24%

Apucarana Sports U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Apucarana Sports U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff