Apucarana Sports U20 vs Andraus Brasil U20 — Paranaense U20 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Apucarana Sports U2048%
Andraus Brasil U2026%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Apucarana Sports U20 creates 46% more chances
Season form · 14 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Apucarana Sports U20 ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Apucarana Sports U20 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches
Andraus Brasil U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Apucarana Sports U20 attack 1.29 + Andraus Brasil U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45
Andraus Brasil U20 attack 1.20 + Apucarana Sports U20 defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Apucarana Sports U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Apucarana Sports U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Apucarana Sports U20 host Andraus Brasil U20 on Saturday, 16 March 2024 at 18:30. The match is part of the Paranaense U20 2024/2025 season.
Paranaense U20: Apucarana Sports U20 1–0 Andraus Brasil U20
Apucarana Sports U20 beat Andraus Brasil U20 1-0 in Paranaense U20 on March 16, 2024.
The match was played at Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto in Apucarana, Paraná.