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APS Bomet vs Vihiga United FC — Super League 2018

APS Bomet
APS Bomet
CANC
13:00
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
12/9/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Bomet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

APS Bomet60%
×Draw24%
Vihiga United FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APS Bomet
1.63
Vihiga United FC
0.69

APS Bomet creates 136% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 55 away

creates per match

APS Bomet
1.47
Vihiga United FC
0.80

allows per match

APS Bomet
0.58
Vihiga United FC
1.78

finishing

APS Bomet+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APS Bomet ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

APS Bomet or draw
84%
APS Bomet or Vihiga United FC
76%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
40%

Winning margin

APS Bomet wins by 2+
33%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

APS Bomet 1+ goals
80%
APS Bomet 2+ goals
48%
APS Bomet 3+ goals
22%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
50%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
15%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

APS Bomet (draw refunded)
79%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APS Bomet at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.58 · 38 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APS Bomet attack 1.47 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + APS Bomet defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

APS Bomet scores more
60%
level
24%
Vihiga United FC scores more
16%

APS Bomet at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "APS Bomet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

APS Bomet vs Vihiga United FC — Match Preview

APS Bomet face Vihiga United FC on December 9, 2022 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

APS Bomet host Vihiga United FC at Bomet Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.