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APS Bomet vs Tusker — FKF Premier League 2018

APS Bomet
APS Bomet
PST
12:00
Tusker
Tusker
11/5/2022FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 9Bomet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

APS Bomet28%
×Draw30%
Tusker42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APS Bomet
0.89
Tusker
1.17

Tusker creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 143 away

creates per match

APS Bomet
0.76
Tusker
1.33

allows per match

APS Bomet
1.00
Tusker
1.01

finishing

APS Bomet+0.00on par
Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APS Bomet ↓

Tusker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

APS Bomet or draw
58%
APS Bomet or Tusker
70%
Draw or Tusker
72%

Winning margin

APS Bomet wins by 2+
9%
Tusker wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

APS Bomet 1+ goals
59%
APS Bomet 2+ goals
22%
APS Bomet 3+ goals
6%
Tusker 1+ goals
69%
Tusker 2+ goals
33%
Tusker 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

APS Bomet (draw refunded)
40%
Tusker (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APS Bomet at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.01 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APS Bomet attack 0.76 + Tusker defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.89

Tusker attack 1.33 + APS Bomet defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

APS Bomet scores more
28%
level
30%
Tusker scores more
42%

Tusker at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

APS Bomet face Tusker (FKF Premier League)

FKF Premier League returns with APS Bomet hosting Tusker. Match starts November 5, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

APS Bomet host Tusker at Bomet Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.