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APS Bomet vs Dandora Love — Super League 2018

APS Bomet
APS Bomet
FT
1 – 2
Dandora Love
Dandora Love
2/10/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Silibwet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

APS Bomet65%
×Draw21%
Dandora Love14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APS Bomet
1.97
Dandora Love
0.79

APS Bomet creates 149% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

creates per match

APS Bomet
1.47
Dandora Love
1.00

allows per match

APS Bomet
0.58
Dandora Love
2.47

finishing

APS Bomet+0.00on par
Dandora Love+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APS Bomet ↓

Dandora Love →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

APS Bomet or draw
86%
APS Bomet or Dandora Love
79%
Draw or Dandora Love
35%

Winning margin

APS Bomet wins by 2+
40%
Dandora Love wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

APS Bomet 1+ goals
86%
APS Bomet 2+ goals
58%
APS Bomet 3+ goals
31%
Dandora Love 1+ goals
55%
Dandora Love 2+ goals
19%
Dandora Love 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

APS Bomet (draw refunded)
82%
Dandora Love (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APS Bomet at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.58 · 38 matches

Dandora Love away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APS Bomet attack 1.47 + Dandora Love defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.97

Dandora Love attack 1.00 + APS Bomet defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

APS Bomet scores more
65%
level
21%
Dandora Love scores more
14%

APS Bomet at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "APS Bomet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: APS Bomet vs Dandora Love

Dandora Love beat APS Bomet 2-1 in Super League on February 10, 2022.

The match was played at Silibwet Stadium in Silibwet.