Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aprilia vs USD Palmese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Aprilia
Aprilia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
USD Palmese
USD Palmese
2/5/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 22Stadio Quinto Ricci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Aprilia39%
×Draw27%
USD Palmese34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aprilia
1.29
USD Palmese
1.17

Aprilia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

creates per match

Aprilia
1.17
USD Palmese
1.15

allows per match

Aprilia
1.19
USD Palmese
1.41

finishing

Aprilia+0.00on par
USD Palmese+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aprilia ↓

USD Palmese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aprilia or draw
66%
Aprilia or USD Palmese
73%
Draw or USD Palmese
61%

Winning margin

Aprilia wins by 2+
18%
USD Palmese wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Aprilia 1+ goals
72%
Aprilia 2+ goals
37%
Aprilia 3+ goals
14%
USD Palmese 1+ goals
69%
USD Palmese 2+ goals
33%
USD Palmese 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aprilia (draw refunded)
54%
USD Palmese (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aprilia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

USD Palmese away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aprilia attack 1.17 + USD Palmese defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

USD Palmese attack 1.15 + Aprilia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aprilia scores more
39%
level
27%
USD Palmese scores more
34%

Aprilia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aprilia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Aprilia 1–1 USD Palmese

Aprilia and USD Palmese drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Quinto Ricci in Aprilia.