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Aprilia vs Team Nuova Florida — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Aprilia
Aprilia
FT
1 – 0
Team Nuova Florida
Team Nuova Florida
9/1/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 1Stadio Quinto Ricci (Aprilia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Aprilia38%
×Draw27%
Team Nuova Florida35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aprilia
1.29
Team Nuova Florida
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 29 away

creates per match

Aprilia
1.17
Team Nuova Florida
1.24

allows per match

Aprilia
1.19
Team Nuova Florida
1.41

finishing

Aprilia+0.00on par
Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aprilia ↓

Team Nuova Florida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Aprilia or draw
65%
Aprilia or Team Nuova Florida
73%
Draw or Team Nuova Florida
62%

Winning margin

Aprilia wins by 2+
17%
Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aprilia 1+ goals
72%
Aprilia 2+ goals
37%
Aprilia 3+ goals
14%
Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals
70%
Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals
34%
Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aprilia (draw refunded)
53%
Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aprilia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Team Nuova Florida away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aprilia attack 1.17 + Team Nuova Florida defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.24 + Aprilia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aprilia scores more
38%
level
27%
Team Nuova Florida scores more
35%

Aprilia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aprilia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Aprilia 1–0 Team Nuova Florida

Aprilia beat Team Nuova Florida 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Quinto Ricci (Aprilia).