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Aprilia vs Sorrento — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Aprilia
Aprilia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sorrento
Sorrento
9/27/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 4Stadio Quinto Ricci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aprilia32%
×Draw28%
Sorrento40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aprilia
1.08
Sorrento
1.24

Sorrento creates 15% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

Aprilia
1.17
Sorrento
1.29

allows per match

Aprilia
1.19
Sorrento
1.00

finishing

Aprilia+0.00on par
Sorrento+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aprilia ↓

Sorrento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Aprilia or draw
60%
Aprilia or Sorrento
72%
Draw or Sorrento
68%

Winning margin

Aprilia wins by 2+
13%
Sorrento wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Aprilia 1+ goals
66%
Aprilia 2+ goals
29%
Aprilia 3+ goals
10%
Sorrento 1+ goals
71%
Sorrento 2+ goals
35%
Sorrento 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aprilia (draw refunded)
45%
Sorrento (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aprilia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Sorrento away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aprilia attack 1.17 + Sorrento defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sorrento attack 1.29 + Aprilia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aprilia scores more
32%
level
28%
Sorrento scores more
40%

Sorrento at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sorrento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Aprilia 0–2 Sorrento

Sorrento beat Aprilia 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on September 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Quinto Ricci in Aprilia.