Aprilia 1–2 Ostia Mare: Result & Stats

Aprilia

FT

1 – 2

Ostia Mare

11/3/2019

Serie D - Girone G · Round 10Stadio Quinto Ricci (Aprilia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Aprilia31%

×Draw26%

Ostia Mare42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ApriliaExpected goals in this matchOstia Mare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.40

Aprilia

1.16

Ostia Mare

1.40

Ostia Mare creates 21% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 48 away

1.17

creates per match

1.60

1.19

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Aprilia

1.17

Ostia Mare

1.60

allows per match

Aprilia

1.19

Ostia Mare

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aprilia+0.00on par

Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aprilia ↓

Ostia Mare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Aprilia or draw

58%

Aprilia or Ostia Mare

74%

Draw or Ostia Mare

69%

Winning margin

Aprilia wins by 2+

13%

Ostia Mare wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Aprilia 1+ goals

69%

Aprilia 2+ goals

32%

Aprilia 3+ goals

11%

Ostia Mare 1+ goals

75%

Ostia Mare 2+ goals

41%

Ostia Mare 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Aprilia (draw refunded)

42%

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aprilia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aprilia attack 1.17 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Aprilia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aprilia scores more

31%

level

26%

Ostia Mare scores more

42%

Ostia Mare at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff