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Aprilia vs Casertana — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Aprilia
Aprilia
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Casertana
Casertana
4/30/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 33Stadio Quinto Ricci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aprilia36%
×Draw27%
Casertana38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aprilia
1.26
Casertana
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

Aprilia
1.17
Casertana
1.41

allows per match

Aprilia
1.19
Casertana
1.35

finishing

Aprilia+0.00on par
Casertana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aprilia ↓

Casertana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Aprilia or draw
62%
Aprilia or Casertana
73%
Draw or Casertana
64%

Winning margin

Aprilia wins by 2+
16%
Casertana wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Aprilia 1+ goals
72%
Aprilia 2+ goals
36%
Aprilia 3+ goals
13%
Casertana 1+ goals
73%
Casertana 2+ goals
37%
Casertana 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aprilia (draw refunded)
49%
Casertana (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aprilia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Casertana away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aprilia attack 1.17 + Casertana defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Casertana attack 1.41 + Aprilia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aprilia scores more
36%
level
27%
Casertana scores more
38%

Casertana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Casertana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Aprilia 4–1 Casertana

Aprilia beat Casertana 4-1 in Serie D - Girone G on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Quinto Ricci in Aprilia.