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Aprilia vs Afragolese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Aprilia
Aprilia
FT
1 – 0
Afragolese
Afragolese
10/3/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 3Stadio Quinto Ricci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aprilia42%
×Draw26%
Afragolese32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aprilia
1.41
Afragolese
1.21

Aprilia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

Aprilia
1.17
Afragolese
1.24

allows per match

Aprilia
1.19
Afragolese
1.65

finishing

Aprilia+0.00on par
Afragolese+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aprilia ↓

Afragolese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Aprilia or draw
68%
Aprilia or Afragolese
74%
Draw or Afragolese
58%

Winning margin

Aprilia wins by 2+
20%
Afragolese wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aprilia 1+ goals
76%
Aprilia 2+ goals
41%
Aprilia 3+ goals
17%
Afragolese 1+ goals
70%
Afragolese 2+ goals
34%
Afragolese 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aprilia (draw refunded)
56%
Afragolese (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aprilia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Afragolese away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aprilia attack 1.17 + Afragolese defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.41

Afragolese attack 1.24 + Aprilia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aprilia scores more
42%
level
26%
Afragolese scores more
32%

Aprilia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aprilia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Aprilia 1–0 Afragolese

Aprilia beat Afragolese 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Quinto Ricci in Aprilia.