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April 25 vs Al Ahed — AFC Cup 2018

April 25
April 25
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ahed
Al Ahedadvanced
11/4/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · FinalKLFA Stadium (Kuala Lumpur)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

April 2572%
×Draw18%
Al Ahed10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

April 25
2.17
Al Ahed
0.67

April 25 creates 224% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

April 25
3.45
Al Ahed
0.88

allows per match

April 25
0.45
Al Ahed
0.88

finishing

April 25+0.00on par
Al Ahed+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

April 25 ↓

Al Ahed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

April 25 or draw
90%
April 25 or Al Ahed
82%
Draw or Al Ahed
28%

Winning margin

April 25 wins by 2+
47%
Al Ahed wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

April 25 1+ goals
89%
April 25 2+ goals
64%
April 25 3+ goals
36%
Al Ahed 1+ goals
49%
Al Ahed 2+ goals
15%
Al Ahed 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

April 25 (draw refunded)
88%
Al Ahed (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

April 25 at home — creates 3.45, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Al Ahed away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

April 25 attack 3.45 + Al Ahed defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 2.17

Al Ahed attack 0.88 + April 25 defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

April 25 scores more
72%
level
18%
Al Ahed scores more
10%

April 25 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "April 25 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: April 25 0–1 Al Ahed

Al Ahed beat April 25 1-0 in AFC Cup on November 4, 2019.

The match was played at KLFA Stadium (Kuala Lumpur).