Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

April 25 vs Abahani — AFC Cup 2018

April 25
April 25advanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Abahani
Abahani
8/28/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Inter-zonal Semi-finalsKim Il Sung Stadium (P'yŏngyang (Pyongyang))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

April 2578%
×Draw15%
Abahani8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

April 25
2.48
Abahani
0.63

April 25 creates 294% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

April 25
3.45
Abahani
0.80

allows per match

April 25
0.45
Abahani
1.50

finishing

April 25+0.00on par
Abahani+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

April 25 ↓

Abahani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

April 25 or draw
92%
April 25 or Abahani
85%
Draw or Abahani
22%

Winning margin

April 25 wins by 2+
55%
Abahani wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

April 25 1+ goals
92%
April 25 2+ goals
70%
April 25 3+ goals
44%
Abahani 1+ goals
47%
Abahani 2+ goals
13%
Abahani 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

April 25 (draw refunded)
91%
Abahani (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

April 25 at home — creates 3.45, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Abahani away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

April 25 attack 3.45 + Abahani defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.48

Abahani attack 0.80 + April 25 defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

April 25 scores more
78%
level
15%
Abahani scores more
8%

April 25 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "April 25 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: April 25 2–0 Abahani

April 25 beat Abahani 2-0 in AFC Cup on August 28, 2019.

The match was played at Kim Il Sung Stadium (P'yŏngyang (Pyongyang)).