APR 4–1 Rwamagana City: Result & Stats

APR

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Rwamagana City

Unknown 3'

5/21/2023

National Soccer League · Round 29Bugesera Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

APR61%

×Draw24%

Rwamagana City14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

APRExpected goals in this matchRwamagana City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.64

APR

1.63

Rwamagana City

0.64

APR creates 155% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 45 away

1.81

creates per match

0.69

0.58

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

APR

1.81

Rwamagana City

0.69

allows per match

APR

0.58

Rwamagana City

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

APR+0.00on par

Rwamagana City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APR ↓

Rwamagana City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

APR or draw

86%

APR or Rwamagana City

76%

Draw or Rwamagana City

39%

Winning margin

APR wins by 2+

34%

Rwamagana City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

APR 1+ goals

80%

APR 2+ goals

48%

APR 3+ goals

22%

Rwamagana City 1+ goals

47%

Rwamagana City 2+ goals

14%

Rwamagana City 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

APR (draw refunded)

81%

Rwamagana City (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APR at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.58 · 97 matches

Rwamagana City away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APR attack 1.81 + Rwamagana City defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.63

Rwamagana City attack 0.69 + APR defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

APR scores more

61%

level

24%

Rwamagana City scores more

14%

APR at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "APR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff