APR 1–0 Etincelles: Result & Stats

APR

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Etincelles

3/2/2024

National Soccer League · Round 23Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

APR59%

×Draw24%

Etincelles17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

APRExpected goals in this matchEtincelles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.76

APR

1.68

Etincelles

0.76

APR creates 121% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 96 away

1.81

creates per match

0.95

0.58

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

APR

1.81

Etincelles

0.95

allows per match

APR

0.58

Etincelles

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

APR+0.00on par

Etincelles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APR ↓

Etincelles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

APR or draw

83%

APR or Etincelles

76%

Draw or Etincelles

41%

Winning margin

APR wins by 2+

33%

Etincelles wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

APR 1+ goals

81%

APR 2+ goals

50%

APR 3+ goals

24%

Etincelles 1+ goals

53%

Etincelles 2+ goals

18%

Etincelles 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

APR (draw refunded)

78%

Etincelles (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APR at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.58 · 97 matches

Etincelles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APR attack 1.81 + Etincelles defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.68

Etincelles attack 0.95 + APR defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

APR scores more

59%

level

24%

Etincelles scores more

17%

APR at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "APR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff