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APR vs Espoir — National Soccer League 2019

APR
APR
FT
1 – 0
Espoir
Espoir
5/23/2021National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Championship Round - 1Stade Huye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

APR65%
×Draw22%
Espoir13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APR
1.79
Espoir
0.64

APR creates 180% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 50 away

creates per match

APR
1.81
Espoir
0.70

allows per match

APR
0.58
Espoir
1.78

finishing

APR+0.00on par
Espoir+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APR ↓

Espoir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

APR or draw
87%
APR or Espoir
78%
Draw or Espoir
35%

Winning margin

APR wins by 2+
38%
Espoir wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

APR 1+ goals
83%
APR 2+ goals
53%
APR 3+ goals
26%
Espoir 1+ goals
47%
Espoir 2+ goals
14%
Espoir 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

APR (draw refunded)
84%
Espoir (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APR at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.58 · 97 matches

Espoir away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APR attack 1.81 + Espoir defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.79

Espoir attack 0.70 + APR defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

APR scores more
65%
level
22%
Espoir scores more
13%

APR at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "APR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: APR vs Espoir

APR beat Espoir 1-0 in National Soccer League on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Huye in Butare.