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Apotheos vs Tennessee — USL League Two 2026

Apotheos
Apotheos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tennessee
Tennessee
5/14/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 2Atlanta Silverbacks Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Apotheos20%
×Draw27%
Tennessee53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apotheos
0.79
Tennessee
1.46

Tennessee creates 85% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Apotheos
0.58
Tennessee
1.00

allows per match

Apotheos
1.92
Tennessee
1.00

finishing

Apotheos+0.00on par
Tennessee+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apotheos ↓

Tennessee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Apotheos or draw
47%
Apotheos or Tennessee
73%
Draw or Tennessee
80%

Winning margin

Apotheos wins by 2+
6%
Tennessee wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Apotheos 1+ goals
55%
Apotheos 2+ goals
19%
Apotheos 3+ goals
5%
Tennessee 1+ goals
77%
Tennessee 2+ goals
43%
Tennessee 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Apotheos (draw refunded)
28%
Tennessee (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apotheos at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Tennessee away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apotheos attack 0.58 + Tennessee defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.79

Tennessee attack 1.00 + Apotheos defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Apotheos scores more
20%
level
27%
Tennessee scores more
53%

Tennessee at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tennessee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Apotheos 1–2 Tennessee

Tennessee beat Apotheos 2-1 in USL League Two on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Atlanta Silverbacks Park in Atlanta, Georgia.