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Apolonia Fier vs Tomori Berat — 1st Division 2019

Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
11/12/20221st Division1st Division · Round 10Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Apolonia Fier56%
×Draw23%
Tomori Berat21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apolonia Fier
1.78
Tomori Berat
0.99

Apolonia Fier creates 80% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 57 away

creates per match

Apolonia Fier
1.79
Tomori Berat
1.02

allows per match

Apolonia Fier
0.96
Tomori Berat
1.77

finishing

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par
Tomori Berat+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apolonia Fier ↓

Tomori Berat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Apolonia Fier or draw
79%
Apolonia Fier or Tomori Berat
77%
Draw or Tomori Berat
44%

Winning margin

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
31%
Tomori Berat wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
83%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
53%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
26%
Tomori Berat 1+ goals
63%
Tomori Berat 2+ goals
26%
Tomori Berat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
73%
Tomori Berat (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apolonia Fier at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.96 · 90 matches

Tomori Berat away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.77 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apolonia Fier attack 1.79 + Tomori Berat defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.78

Tomori Berat attack 1.02 + Apolonia Fier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Apolonia Fier scores more
56%
level
23%
Tomori Berat scores more
21%

Apolonia Fier at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Apolonia Fier vs Tomori Berat

Tomori Berat beat Apolonia Fier 1-0 in 1st Division on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu in Fier.