Apolonia Fier 2–1 Shkumbini Peqin: Result & Stats

Apolonia Fier

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Shkumbini Peqin

9/18/2021

1st Division · Round 2Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Apolonia Fier71%

×Draw17%

Shkumbini Peqin12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apolonia FierExpected goals in this matchShkumbini Peqin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

0.84

Apolonia Fier

2.36

Shkumbini Peqin

0.84

Apolonia Fier creates 181% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

1.79

creates per match

0.73

0.96

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Apolonia Fier

1.79

Shkumbini Peqin

0.73

allows per match

Apolonia Fier

0.96

Shkumbini Peqin

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apolonia Fier ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Apolonia Fier or draw

88%

Apolonia Fier or Shkumbini Peqin

83%

Draw or Shkumbini Peqin

29%

Winning margin

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+

48%

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals

90%

Apolonia Fier 2+ goals

68%

Apolonia Fier 3+ goals

41%

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals

57%

Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals

21%

Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)

86%

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apolonia Fier at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.96 · 90 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apolonia Fier attack 1.79 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.36

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Apolonia Fier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Apolonia Fier scores more

71%

level

17%

Shkumbini Peqin scores more

12%

Apolonia Fier at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff