Apolonia Fier 1–0 Luzi 2008: Result & Stats

Apolonia Fier

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Luzi 2008

2/3/2024

1st Division · Round 19Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Apolonia Fier56%

×Draw24%

Luzi 200821%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apolonia FierExpected goals in this matchLuzi 2008

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.96

Apolonia Fier

1.75

Luzi 2008

0.96

Apolonia Fier creates 82% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 31 away

1.79

creates per match

0.97

0.96

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Apolonia Fier

1.79

Luzi 2008

0.97

allows per match

Apolonia Fier

0.96

Luzi 2008

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Luzi 2008+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apolonia Fier ↓

Luzi 2008 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Apolonia Fier or draw

79%

Apolonia Fier or Luzi 2008

76%

Draw or Luzi 2008

44%

Winning margin

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+

31%

Luzi 2008 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals

83%

Apolonia Fier 2+ goals

52%

Apolonia Fier 3+ goals

25%

Luzi 2008 1+ goals

62%

Luzi 2008 2+ goals

25%

Luzi 2008 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)

73%

Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apolonia Fier at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.96 · 90 matches

Luzi 2008 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apolonia Fier attack 1.79 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Luzi 2008 attack 0.97 + Apolonia Fier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Apolonia Fier scores more

56%

level

24%

Luzi 2008 scores more

21%

Apolonia Fier at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff