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Apolonia Fier vs Laci — 1st Division 2019

Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Laci
Laci
S. Kalaj 47'
A. Traore 42'
12/20/20251st Division1st Division · Round 17Stadiumi Loni Papuciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Apolonia Fier35%
×Draw28%
Laci37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apolonia Fier
1.19
Laci
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 16 away

creates per match

Apolonia Fier
1.81
Laci
1.50

allows per match

Apolonia Fier
0.94
Laci
0.56

finishing

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par
Laci+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apolonia Fier ↓

Laci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Apolonia Fier or draw
63%
Apolonia Fier or Laci
72%
Draw or Laci
65%

Winning margin

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
15%
Laci wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
70%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
33%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
12%
Laci 1+ goals
70%
Laci 2+ goals
34%
Laci 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
49%
Laci (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apolonia Fier at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 93 matches

Laci away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apolonia Fier attack 1.81 + Laci defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.19

Laci attack 1.50 + Apolonia Fier defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Apolonia Fier scores more
35%
level
28%
Laci scores more
37%

Laci at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Laci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
A. Traore
47'
S. Kalaj
90+1'
V. Anane
Apolonia
Laci
M. Tatángelo
Manager: M. Tatángelo
F. Moriero
Manager: F. Moriero

Match Recap: Apolonia Fier vs Laci

Laci beat Apolonia Fier 2-0 in 1st Division on December 20, 2025.

Goals: A. Traore (42'), S. Kalaj (47').

The match was played at Stadiumi Loni Papuciu in Fier.