Apolonia Fier 1–1 Flamurtari: Result & Stats

Apolonia Fier

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Flamurtari

1/20/2024

1st Division · Round 17Aneksi i stadiumit Loni Papuçiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Apolonia Fier44%

×Draw26%

Flamurtari29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apolonia FierExpected goals in this matchFlamurtari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.11

Apolonia Fier

1.42

Flamurtari

1.11

Apolonia Fier creates 28% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 55 away

1.79

creates per match

1.27

0.96

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Apolonia Fier

1.79

Flamurtari

1.27

allows per match

Apolonia Fier

0.96

Flamurtari

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Flamurtari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apolonia Fier ↓

Flamurtari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Apolonia Fier or draw

71%

Apolonia Fier or Flamurtari

74%

Draw or Flamurtari

56%

Winning margin

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+

21%

Flamurtari wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals

76%

Apolonia Fier 2+ goals

41%

Apolonia Fier 3+ goals

17%

Flamurtari 1+ goals

67%

Flamurtari 2+ goals

30%

Flamurtari 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)

60%

Flamurtari (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apolonia Fier at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.96 · 90 matches

Flamurtari away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.04 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apolonia Fier attack 1.79 + Flamurtari defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.42

Flamurtari attack 1.27 + Apolonia Fier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Apolonia Fier scores more

44%

level

26%

Flamurtari scores more

29%

Apolonia Fier at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff