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Apolonia Fier vs FK Kukesi — 1st Division 2019

Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
11/23/20251st Division1st Division · Round 12Stadiumi Loni Papuciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Apolonia Fier60%
×Draw23%
FK Kukesi17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apolonia Fier
1.77
FK Kukesi
0.81

Apolonia Fier creates 119% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 35 away

creates per match

Apolonia Fier
1.79
FK Kukesi
0.66

allows per match

Apolonia Fier
0.96
FK Kukesi
1.74

finishing

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par
FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apolonia Fier ↓

FK Kukesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Apolonia Fier or draw
83%
Apolonia Fier or FK Kukesi
77%
Draw or FK Kukesi
40%

Winning margin

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
34%
FK Kukesi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
83%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
53%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
26%
FK Kukesi 1+ goals
56%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
19%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
78%
FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apolonia Fier at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.96 · 90 matches

FK Kukesi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.74 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apolonia Fier attack 1.79 + FK Kukesi defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.77

FK Kukesi attack 0.66 + Apolonia Fier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Apolonia Fier scores more
60%
level
23%
FK Kukesi scores more
17%

Apolonia Fier at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Apolonia Fier vs FK Kukesi

Apolonia Fier beat FK Kukesi 2-0 in 1st Division on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loni Papuciu in Fier.